How is voter turnout measured

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Pacek, A. Disenchanted or discerning: Voter turnout in post-communist countries. The dominant theory for why turnout varies focuses on a type of cost-benefit calculation as seen from the perspective of the voter. Voters balance what they stand to gain if one candidate beats another, vs.

Other scholarship has challenged this approach by showing that going to the polls is largely based on voting being intrinsically rewarding. A long history of political science research has shown that the following demographic factors are associated with higher levels of voter turnout: more education, higher income, older age, and being married see table below. Women currently vote at slightly higher levels than men.

Can particular election reforms such as Election Day registration, vote-by-mail, early voting, photo ID, etc. Research results in most of these areas have been mixed at best. What about the roles that campaigns play in stimulating voter turnout? This is most visible in presidential elections, where candidates pour disproportionate resources into campaigning in battleground states—those that are closely divided along partisan lines and thus are most likely to swing the result of the Electoral College vote.

Field experiments to test the effects of campaign communications on voter turnout have shown that personalized methods work best in mobilizing voters and mass e-mails are virtually never effective in stimulating turnout. We care about turnout levels for two reasons. First, they're considered a measure of the health of a democracy, so higher turnout is always better than lower turnout.

Early research seemed to justify skepticism that increasing turnout in federal elections would radically change the mix of opinions among those who actually vote.

However, more recent research suggests that voters in national elections are more likely to be Republican and to oppose redistributive social policies than non-voters. Differences between voters and non-voters on other issues such as foreign policy are much less pronounced.

When it comes to local elections, overall turnout rates tend to be much lower than elections held to coincide with federal elections, and the demographic characteristics of voters are much more skewed compared to non-voters.

American National Election Studies. Census Bureau—Voting and Registration. Aldrich, John H. Green, Donald P. Washington D. Hur, Aram and Christopher H. Leighley, Jan E. Who Votes Now? Princeton : Princeton University Press. Silver, Brian D. Anderson, and Paul. Riker, William H. Wolfinger, Raymond E. The next step is to count how many people could have voted in the same election. This is the number that causes different people to calculate different turnout rates.

The complete population of the country includes all people, regardless of age, nationality, mental capacity, or freedom. We can count subsections of this population to calculate voter turnout. For instance, the next largest population in the country is the voting-age population VAP , which consists of persons who are eighteen and older.

Some of these persons may not be eligible to vote in their state, but they are included because they are of age to do so. An even smaller group is the voting-eligible population VEP , citizens eighteen and older who, whether they have registered or not, are eligible to vote because they are citizens, mentally competent, and not imprisoned. If a state has more stringent requirements, such as not having a felony conviction, citizens counted in the VEP must meet those criteria as well.

This results in a number that is somewhat theoretical; however, in a way, it is more accurate when determining voter turnout. The last and smallest population is registered voters, who, as the name implies, are citizens currently registered to vote.

Now we can appreciate how reports of voter turnout can vary. Although 87 percent of registered voters voted in the presidential election, this represents only 42 percent of the total U. While 42 percent is indeed low and might cause alarm, some people included in it are under eighteen, not citizens, or unable to vote due to competency or prison status. The next number shows that just over 57 percent of the voting-age population voted, and 60 percent of the voting-eligible population.

The best turnout ratio is calculated using the smallest population: 87 percent of registered voters voted. Those who argue that a healthy democracy needs high voter turnout will look at the voting-age population or voting-eligible population as proof that the United States has a problem.

Those who believe only informed and active citizens should vote point to the registered voter turnout numbers instead. There are many ways to measure voter turnout depending on whether we calculate it using the total population, the voting-age population VAP , the voting-eligible population VEP , or the total number of registered voters.

Political parties and campaign managers approach every population of voters differently, based on what they know about factors that influence turnout. Everyone targets likely voters, which are the category of registered voters who vote regularly.

Most campaigns also target registered voters in general, because they are more likely to vote than unregistered citizens. For this reason, many polling agencies ask respondents whether they are already registered and whether they voted in the last election.

Those who are registered and did vote in the last election are likely to have a strong interest in politics and elections and will vote again, provided they are not angry with the political system or politicians.

Some campaigns and civic groups target members of the voting-eligible population who are not registered, especially in states that are highly contested during a particular election. The Association of Community Organizations for Reform Now ACORN , which is now defunct, was both lauded and criticized for its efforts to get voters in low socio-economic areas registered during the election. Similarly, interest groups in Los Angeles were criticized for registering homeless citizens as a part of an effort to gather signatures to place propositions on the ballot.

Campaigns also target different age groups with different intensity, because age is a relatively consistent factor in predicting voting behavior.

Those between eighteen and twenty-five are least likely to vote, while those sixty-five to seventy-four are most likely. One reason for lower voter turnout among younger citizens may be that they move frequently. When people are neglected, they are in turn less likely to become engaged in government.

They may also be unaware of what a government provides. Younger people are often still in college, perhaps working part-time and earning low wages.

They are unlikely to be receiving government benefits beyond Pell Grants or government-subsidized tuition and loans. They are also unlikely to be paying taxes at a high rate. Government is a distant concept rather than a daily concern, which may drive down turnout. In , for example, the Census Bureau reported that only Once a person has retired, reliance on the government will grow if he or she draws income from Social Security, receives health care from Medicare, and enjoys benefits such as transportation and social services from state and local governments.

AARP, formerly the American Association of Retired Persons, is one of the most influential interest groups because senior citizens are known to vote at nearly double the rate of young people b , thanks in part to their increased reliance on government programs as they age.

Due to consistently low turnout among the young, several organizations have made special efforts to demonstrate to younger citizens that voting is an important activity. Rock the Vote began in , with the goal of bringing music, art, and pop culture together to encourage the youth to participate in government.

The organization hosts rallies, festivals, and concerts that also register voters and promote voter awareness, bringing celebrities and musicians to set examples of civic involvement.

Rock the Vote also maintains a website that helps young adults find out how to register in their state. These efforts may have helped in and , when the number of youth voting in the presidential elections increased.

On August 23, , the Obama campaign texted supporters directly in order to announce that he had selected Senator Joe Biden D-DE as his running mate b. The high level of interest Obama inspired among college-aged voters was a milestone in modern politics.

Since the passage of the Twenty-Sixth Amendment, which lowered the voting age from 21 to 18, voter turnout in the under range has been low. While opposition to the Vietnam War and the military draft sent In , however, it briefly increased to 45 percent from only 32 percent in What qualities should a presidential or congressional candidate show in order to get college students excited and voting?

Among those who have completed college, the voter turnout rate jumps to 75 percent of eligible voters, compared to about This is due in part to the powerful effect of education, one of the strongest predictors of voting turnout.